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MacroMarkets has assembled a very distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts who are surveyed every month regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the U.S. The report is the  HOME PRICE EXPECTATIONS SURVEY.

Their purpose for this undertaking?

We are hopeful that this survey, and our panelists, will help to stimulate constructive debate among consumers, institutions and policy makers regarding expected future changes in home prices – and their behavioral, policy, and risk management implications.

We believe each of their goals is important. We also want to relay the findings of the surveys to you in order for you to see what the experts are saying and also look at the trends that are developing in their beliefs.

What the experts are saying:

The August survey reported that only 21% of those surveyed predict “positive growth in prices nation-wide for 2010”. The report also revealed that the group, as a whole, predicts that home prices will have a cumulative 8.43% appreciation by the fourth quarter of 2014.

What trends are developing:

The report shows an increase in concern about the housing recovery. The survey reports that 79% of the economists and analysts surveyed are expecting home prices to decline this year. That number is up from 40% in May.

For the third consecutive month, the consensus from the experts indicates weakened overall confidence in the U.S. housing recovery … (with) average expected cumulative price appreciation through 2014 falling almost one-third since our inaugural survey just three months ago …

The evolution of the panel toward more conservative projections of appreciation for the next five years can be seen in their adjustment of that cumulative mean appreciation over the last four reports. Here is their percentage projection of appreciation for the 4th quarter of 2014 (compared to the 4th quarter of 2009).

  • May’s report called for a five year cumulative appreciation of 12.43%.
  • June’s report called for a five year cumulative appreciation of 10.46%.
  • July’s report called for a five year cumulative appreciation of 9.46%.
  • Augusts’ report called for a five year cumulative appreciation of 8.43%.

Bottom Line:

The leading housing industry experts are becoming less optimistic about a  recovery. Waiting for prices to come back before selling? That could be a rather long wait.

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The biggest question looming over the economy overall and real estate specifically is whether or not we will experience a double dip. What exactly is a double dip? Robert Hall, chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists that officially declares the starts and ends of recessions, says:

“A double dip is akin to a continuous recession that’s punctuated by a period of growth, then followed by a further decline in the economy.”

 We’ve had a recession followed by a period of growth. Are we headed for further decline in the economy? We’ll leave discussion of the overall economy to others.

We want to tackle what a double dip could mean to the real estate industry. Are we in store for another dramatic drop in housing values? As seems to be the case in every area of real estate today, there is no consensus.  We’ll give you both arguments.

 Best Case Scenario

Reuters, in an article last week titled Housing Market to Skirt Another Big Downturn, shared the results of a poll that showed:

 The housing market should skirt another major downturn, even though stubbornly high unemployment and foreclosures will curb demand and keep home prices mostly flat through 2011.

Home properties in the 20 biggest U.S. metro areas could end up with a tiny rise in value this year despite government tax credits to homebuyers ending more than three months ago.

But with a slowing recovery and tight lending standards, most economists predicted it could take at least five years for average home prices to revisit their 2006 peaks prior to the worst housing crash since the 1930s Great Depression.

Even a ‘tiny’ increase in home values suggests that a double dip will not occur. That would bring relief to most homeowners and real estate professionals. Now, let’s look at the other side of the argument.

Worst Case Scenario

The Wall Street Journal on the day before the above mentioned article also reported on the chances of a double dip in housing. Their article, Moody’s: Odds of a Double Dip Increasing, Prices Could Fall 20% paints quite a different picture.

 If the U.S. enters a double-dip recession, home prices could fall by another 20% before they stabilize in early 2012, according to a new forecast by Moody’s Analytics.

That compares to the baseline forecast that calls for another 5% decline with prices hitting bottom early next year. Housing economist Celia Chen writes that the odds of a near-term double-dip recession now stand near one in four, versus odds of one in five during the spring.

Ms. Chen writes that foreclosures, and the lack of success of loan modifications, remain one of the biggest risks to housing, “with another vicious spiral downward a possibility.”

In the actual Moody’s report mentioned in the WSJ article, they advise investors that one of two scenarios could play out. Here is the graph of Moody’s two possible outcomes:

  

They are calling for either a 5% or 20% fall in prices with a 25% chance of the more dramatic reduction.

 Robert Shiller, The Yale University professor and leading expert on the current real estate market thinks the chances of a double dip in the economy may be even higher. In a Market Watch News Break last week, he claimed the odds were 50-50 unless the jobs picture changes.

 What does this mean to you?

If you are thinking of selling anytime in the near future, we think the risk in waiting (a possible vicious spiral downward’ in prices) is not worth the possible reward (a tiny’ rise in value of your home).

Everyone knows that you need a good credit score to get a mortgage.  Most even know that your score will affect the rate and fees you pay for your loan; but few are aware that your credit score also is a determinant of your homeowners’ and auto insurance rates and a myriad of other things.

Simply put, your FICO Score has a huge impact on your financial life.  So, how can we get the best possible score?

There are five components to your score:

1. Your Credit History makes up 35% of your score.

This is obvious.  How you have paid your responsibilities before is a good predictor of how you will pay them in the future.  While your credit profile will look back seven  years, the most weight is given to your activity and performance over the last 24 months.  Here’s a little known tip about your credit.  Let’s say, you have a “charge off” for a cell phone bill you didn’t pay 5 years ago.  Today, that “charge off” has little impact on your score.  Many people, as they prepare to buy a home, will just pay the “charge off” to clean up their credit report.  Makes sense, doesn’t it?  However, by doing this, you will move the activity on the “charge off” to now (which is in the two year window), actually lowering your score.  Before you do anything like this, talk to your mortgage professional!

 2. Your Amount of Credit makes up 30% of your score.

Now, this is not your total amount of outstanding debt (as you might assume), it is the amount of debt you have divided by the amount of debt you have available to you.  As an example, a client who owes $5000 on their one credit card that has a $5000 limit will have a lower score, than a client who owes $100,000 in credit card debt, but has $250,000 in available credit lines because their percentage of usage is lower.   Optimally, you want to target 30% or less usage of your available credit.   Many people cancel some of their credit cards before applying for a mortgage because they think it will help their application, since (logically) they think less credit availability means they are less likely to “get in trouble” and that’s a good thing.  They are WRONG.  Canceling those cards lowers the amount of available credit, driving their percentage of usage higher, lowering their score.

3. Your Length of Credit History makes up 15% of your score.

This makes sense too.  A consumer who has paid all their bills for 20 years deserves a better score than someone who has paid their bills on time for 20 months.  This is another instance where some people cancel credit cards and it hurts them because the cards they cancel reflect a longer payment history.  Be careful to consider this factor before deleting any account from your credit history.

4. The Types of Credit You Use makes up 10% of your score.

Mortgage payments, auto and student loans (really installment debt of any kind) are weighted most.  The payment is typically fixed in amount and due date; therefore, “missing a payment” on one of these accounts usually indicates a problem more than carelessness.  Your major credit cards (like Visa and MasterCard) have variable payments and due dates.  Additionally, there are times when you buy something and return it, but during the time in between a bill was issued.  You get the bill.  You know the item was returned.  So, you don’t make a payment.  The credit card company can still report you for missing a payment (damaging your score).  This is why store-issued credit cards carry even less importance.  They love reporting you late to make it harder for you to get a credit card at a competing store.

5. Your Credit Inquiries make up 10% of your score.

The scoring models now cluster your inquiries.  What that means is that if multiple people within an industry run your credit within a 45 day time period (you’re shopping for a car or mortgage, for example), all those inquiries are treated as one.  But, if you shop for a mortgage and a car at the same time you are trying to increase your credit card limits and get life insurance, your score can be lowered by as many as 55 points.

You need to be aware of what your actions can do to your score. 

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People often ask how they should determine with whom they should market their house. Aren’t real estate agents really all the same? Don’t they all do the same thing? Shouldn’t I just hire the one that charges me the lowest commission rate?

The answer to each of these questions is NO!

In any other profession, there are good and not so good practitioners. Real estate is no different. How long it will take to sell your home will be determined by the quality of agent you hire. The price you will receive will be determined by the agent you select.

How can you tell the pretenders from the professionals?

Here is a good checklist to use when interviewing potential agents:

The pretenders tell you what you want to hear. The professionals tell you everything you need to know.

The pretenders worry about your feelings and place great emphasis on whether or not you will like them. The professionals worry about your family and how they can help.

The pretenders are afraid you will ask a lot of questions about the changes in the current real estate market. The professionals take the time to simply and effectively explain your options in today’s rapidly evolving market.

The pretenders will spend the majority of time talking about themselves and their company. The professionals will spend the majority of time talking about your family’s needs and goals and how they plan to help you reach them.

The pretenders think you hired them to list the house. The professionals realize you hired them to do one thing – get the house sold.

I hope I helped you do two things:

  • Realize there are major differences in the professionalism of real estate agents
  • There is a way to determine the true professional during the interview process.

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